第4期

季节指数的抽样估计                                             张荷观

PoMix抽样方法的几个问题                                       栾文英

二级单元调查五次时的一种两层次样本轮换方法——针对采用两阶段抽样设计的季度调查                                                侯志强 侯峰

信息消费系数与信息化发展阶段研究报告

杨京英、闾海琪、杨红军、王强、高析、郭义民

区域间产业结构差异成因分析模型及其应用               刘保珺  关欣  陈平

用修正四联表分析我国各地区高等教育效率                  戴平生 曾五一

北京市土地资源承载力研究                                       郭志伟

中国房地产市场财富效应研究                                师应来 王勇

中国服务业区域发展影响因素的实证研究——兼论地区工业化对服务业的挤压效应                                                             谷彬

基于先行指标的省级宏观经济预测系统

林筱文 王晓羽 宋磊 范丽 陈宝泉

关于世界银行推算中国购买力平价的方法、结果及问题研究            余芳东

未决赔款准备金评估的对数正态模型及其WinBUGS实现               张连增

中国大陆财产保险市场的地区差异实证分析                           陈滔

长寿指数债券在中国的适用性分析                            蔡正高 张萌

金融风险定义与测量的新探索——基于小波分析的波动频率时变性分析

韩海波

中国股市波动性的多重分形计量                            赵宏宝 杨桂元

中国股票市场收益的非线性行为研究——基于SETAR-GARCH模型的分析

刘潭秋 孙湘海

基于串联灰色神经网络的股指预测模型                      王吉培 王聪颖

空间分布统计：对统计学的挑战                                   赵作权

再谈分段拟合建模技术及其应用——基于30年入境旅游外汇收入最佳建模与趋势预测                                                         李武选

考虑结构突变的单位根检验程序研究——基于“新息异常值模型”的Perron检验分析                                                    聂巧平 冯蕾

两类NCD系统在随机优序下的关系                         王传玉  张建标

初始因子应用中六个问题的解析                                   林海明

企业寿命生命表的编制初探                                       刘崇光

Statistical Review

No.4

Contents

The Estimation for the Seasonal Index

ZHANG He-guan

Some Issues of PoMix Sampling

LUAN Wen-ying

A Two-Layer Rotation System with the Secondary Sampling Units Interviewed Five Times——for Quarterly Surveys with Two-Stage Sampling Designs

HOU Zhi-qiang HOU Feng

The Research Report on Information Consumption Coefficient and Informatization Development Phase

YANG Jing-ying, LU Hai-qi, WANG Qiang, YANG Hong-jun & GUO Yi-min

Industrial Differences and the Investigation of the Causes: the Use of an Input-output Model

LIU Bao-jun GUAN Xin CHEN Ping

Efficiency Analysis of Higher Education in Different Regions of China by Modified Quadriform

DAI Ping-sheng, ZENG Wu-yi

Comprehensive Evaluation on Land Resources Carrying Capacity for Beijing City

GUO Zhi-wei

Wealth Effect in Stock Market and Real Estate Market in China

SHI Ying-lai WANG Yong

The Empirical Research of Factors to area Development of Chinese Service Industry ——Concurrently Discussing the Extrusion from Regional Industrialization to Service Industry

Gu Bin

Provincial macro-economic forecasting system based on leading indicators

LIN Xiao-wen WANG Xiao-lei SONG Lei FAN Li CHEN Bao-quan

The study on 2005 PPP results for China estimated by World Bank and the methodology, the problems

YU Fang-dong

Lognormal Linear Regression Model for the IBNR Reserve and Its Implementation with WinBUGS

ZHANG Lian-zeng

The analysis the structure of the property insurance markets of different areas of Chinese main-land

CHEN Tao

Applicability of longevity-indexed bonds in China

CAI Zheng-gao ZHANG Meng

A New Exploring: Definition and Measurement of Financial Risk----Based on Wavelet Analysis

HAN Hai-bo

The Multifractal Measures of China's Stock Market Volatility

ZHAO Hong-bao YANG Gui-yuan

Study on Nonlinear Behaviors of Returns in China Stock Markets——Based on the STAR-GARCH model

LIU Tan-qiu, SUN Xiang-hai

Stock Index Forecasting Model Base on Serial Grey Neural Network

WANG Ji-pei WANG Cong-ying

Statistics of Spatial Distribution: Challenges for Statistics

ZHAO Zuoquan

Discussed again the partition fitting modeling technology and forecast using ——based on 30 year entry foreign exchange earnings from tourism best modelling and the tendency forecast

LI Wu-xuan

The Research on the Unit Root Test Procedure with Structural Break ——the Analysis Based on the Perron Test in the Frame of “Innovational Outlier Model”

NIE Qiao-ping FENG Lei

The Relationship of two kinds of NCD system under the stochastic dominance order

Wang Chuanyu  Zhang JianBiao

The Explanation of the Six Questions in Initial Factor Application

LIN Hai-ming

The first life table of the Chinese enterprises

LIU Chong-guang